The Final Breakdown: R17

Each week for the rest of the AFL season, I’ll produce a detailed stats analysis for every team that has a realistic chance to make the finals.

  1. Fremantle (56 pts). The Dockers play GWS this week. A win will further consolidate them in top spot, while a loss would enable West Coast, which has a superior percentage, to leapfrog them into first place.
  2. West Coast (52 pts). West Coast has an almost certain win, against Gold Coast. A win will keep them in at least second, first if the Dockers lose. If the Eagles lose, on the other hand, Hawthorn’s ridiculously massive percentage would set themselves up in second if they beat Richmond.
  3. Hawthorn (48 pts). Plays Richmond this week. A win sets them up for nine in a row and a possible second-place. Due to their massive percentage, if they lose, they’ll still be third.
  4. Sydney (44 pts). Stuck in fourth because of Hawthorn’s preposterous percentage, but could drop to fifth if it loses to Adelaide. Unlikely, but it could go as low as sixth.
  5. Richmond (40 pts). This game against Hawthorn is crucial, as they need a win to keep their top four hopes alive. Losing could set them down to sixth or seventh.
  6. W Bulldogs (40 pts). In a similar position to Richmond, but plays Essendon, who are probably easier to beat. They have a slightly lower percentage, a possible hindrance.
  7. Adelaide (38 pts). If it can beat Sydney and one of Richmond or the Bulldogs lose, they’ll climb up to sixth, or fifth if they both lose. A loss could end with them leaving the top eight.
  8. N Melbourne (36 pts). Should beat Carlton. They need to use this as a percentage-booster, given they’re only 1% ahead of GWS. Could climb to seventh or sixth if they’re lucky, could fall to eleventh if they’re not.
  9. GWS Giants (36 pts). An unlikely win over Fremantle could see them as high as sixth. The likelihood points to them losing, and placing them tenth or eleventh.
  10. Geelong (34 pts). A win against the Brisbane Lions could see them into seventh, but the most likely chance is eighth or ninth. Losing, they’ll either stay the same or drop one spot.
  11. Collingwood (32 pts). Needs to beat Melbourne. If it does, it could return to the top eight. If not, it could be two games off the pace with five rounds to go.
  12. Pt Adelaide (28 pts). My pre-season prediction for the flag needs a win over St Kilda to have the slightest hope of a finals spot. Anything less, and they’re gone.

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