AFL Finals: Week 2 Predictions

Well, week 1 has been done, and the analysis got two out of four. I got one out of four, so I’m considering that a passmark.

Now, we need to analyse Sydney v N Melbourne and Adelaide v Hawthorn.

We are, again, using a bit of analysis from last week, but it’ll be updated, and a new feature placed in.

First off, we’ve slightly updated the stats regarding top 8 average, home/away differential, and recent form. We didn’t have to update finals experience.

Top 8 average Home/Away Diff Form Form v Opp Finals Ex TOTAL
SYDNEY 0.33 0.03 0.1 0.2 0.66
N MELBOURNE 0.4 -0.05 0.3 0.1 0.75
ADELAIDE 0.45 -0.05 0.2 0.05 0.65
HAWTHORN 0.67 0.03 0.2 0.2 1.1

Form versus the opposition, however, is different. Both teams have met each other in recent preliminary finals (2012 for Adelaide-Hawthorn, 2014 for Sydney-North. Funnily enough, in both of those years, the winner lost the Grand Final.). And I realised that I’d probably been overweighting it, so its average will be divided by 2. So, anyway, here it is:

Top 8 average Home/Away Diff Form Form v Opp Finals Ex TOTAL
SYDNEY 0.33 0.03 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.86
N MELBOURNE 0.4 -0.05 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.55
ADELAIDE 0.45 -0.05 0.2 -0.25 0.05 0.4
HAWTHORN 0.67 0.03 0.2 0.25 0.2 1.35

And now, we’re throwing in a last statistic, in regards to the team.

The average score per game per team is 87, so teams will earn +0.01 for every point above 87 they average for, and +0.01 for every point below 87 averaged against.

Finals Predictions Week 2

The Statscrunch Analysis (which has gone 50% so far) predicts SYDNEY and HAWTHORN to win this week.

So does Nick, the guy behind Statscrunch. To be fair, it’s an easy week to tip.

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