So, the Brownlow Medal ended up with Patrick Dangerfield being crowned the winner by nine votes, recieving the highest number of votes in Brownlow history.
The obvious thing to do now is see how some of the numbers from the Brownlow turned out.
Top 10 against Predictions
I came across at least three good predictions for the final placings:
- A Top 10 prediction as published in The Age yesterday
- The afl.com.au Brownlow predictor
- The end results from Music Brownlow’s 3-2-1 poll
And then, looking at the final Top 10, and correlating it with predictions, this is what we end up with:
Everyone was spot on with Dangerfield, but that was by no means a surprise. It’s also impressive how we tipped with Martin and Bontempelli.
On the other hand, afl.com.au really underestimated Dan Hannebery, and we all highly overestimated Luke Shuey. He came equal sixth in The Age and equal fourth on afl.com.au, but ended up getting just 10 votes and coming equal thirty-fifth.
How Danger’s Season Compares
Dangerfield got 35 votes, the most of anyone in history, and, being the historically minded stats researchers we are, we used the utterly phenomenal AFL Tables to see how his season compares with the rest of the top 5 since 1984, the earliest year AFL Tables has round by round results.
Dangerfield’s season is, overall, more impressive than everyone’s except Fyfe. Had Fyfe not gotten injured last year, he would easily have smashed the 40 vote mark.